Case Of The Wildcat: Part 1

Villanova: The case with Nova is undeniably calculated very well.  They don’t always win big, but they win.  Playing in the tough Big East, it’s a battle every night.  I think most Big East teams end up beating themselves up so much that by Tournament time, they are tired and hurt.  As dominant as the Big East has been in the last ten years, a team hasn’t won the Championship since UCONN in 2004, following up the Melo led Syracuse from ’03.  Jay Wright is a great coach who would be a top candidate for any major College Basketball Program right now if a coach were to retire (or get booted out for NCAA investigation).  His teams remind me of 80′s and 90′s Indiana teams.  High basketball IQ’s, move the ball well, offensive precision, defensively intense, and do many of the little things correctly and efficiently with solid to good players who every year seem to buy into Wright’s system.

It’s not as necessary to statistically prove how bad they are at any facet of the game or category (like I will with K State) or what could be their ultimate downfall.  They’re shooting 77.5% from the charity stripe.  That’s good #1 in the Big East and #9 nationally.  That bodes well in the tournament.  They have 1 bad loss, an away game at Providence, but losing to Georgetown by 3 at home and @ UCONN by 2, are nothing to worry.  Those are 2 of the better teams in the nation.  The loss on a neutral court to Tennessee could provide an argument of reason, but Tennessee has some athletes that can flat out score the ball, regardless of who is on the bench coaching them.  Ok, so that covers all 4 of their losses.  Stats that mean something:  Turnovers/pg: 11.7, #42 nationally, and surprisingly, turn the ball over less on road games.

As/To ratio: 1.256, not too bad. 38th nationally and significantly better than last year.

Points Per Game:  75.5, 45th nationally.

Offensive Efficiency:  1.086, 27th nationally.

Opponents pts/pg: 63.4.  54th nationally.

Defensive Efficiency:  0.912.  3rd in Big East.  38th nationally.

Opponent’s Effective FG %: 44.6.  2nd in Big East. 21st nationally.

Opponent’s 3 pt %: 29.4%.  2nd in Big East.  13th nationally.  They guard your face and force them to make mistakes on the perimeter.

Total Rebounds Per Game: 38.5, 4th in Big East, 35th nationally.

Overall RPI:  14th

Strength of Schedule RPI: 26th

Away Power Rating:  13th.

FG%: 44.4%, 122nd nationally.  Not good, but because they are solid in so many areas, it is not crippling either.

As I’ve displayed, this is one of the most balanced teams in the NCAA.  The Frontcourt is solid.  Their 3 guards, Stokes, Fisher, and Wayns may the best set of 3 guards in the Big East.  Their downfall is that none of these guards shoot better than 43%.  But considering their perimeter defense is among the best in the nation, it could figure to be a wash.  They can shoot, however, and could potentially get hot at the right time.  All 3 shoot above 80% from the FT line (Stokes at 94.5%).  Four of their starters average double figure points with Pena and Yarou averaging more than 7 boards a game.

So balance particularly defines this squad.  Defense, offense, taking care of the ball, rebounding, ball movement, talented guards, solid forwards etc. As I said, they aren’t deemed as dominant in any one thing, but they do all things well.  And that could mean a lot by March if their guards are shooting well.  I am wavering between Team Knight or Team Smith.  They’ve slightly gone under the radar, but with a month to go, anything could happen in the super tight Big East.  Could I give a power rating of 3.5 here?  Naw, I’m going Team Smith here.

 

 

 

Kansas State:  A top 5 team in virtually every Pre-Season Ranking, many of which dubbed them at #2 or #3.  Jacob Pullen was a pre-season 1st Team All American, and Frank Martin was one of the hottest coaches in the nation.  Fast forward to today, and they are a mediocre (at best) Big 12 team, nowhere near a valid Top 25 poll and maybe further off the bubble than Coffeyville Community College.

On December 18th, they were 8-2 with the only losses in neutral arenas to Duke (a 14 point loss) and a 13 point loss to a soon to be ranked Florida in a low scoring affair to which neither team could viably put the ball in the bucket.  I wouldn’t consider those bad losses even to a a perennial pre-season top 25 team (especially Duke) and still figured them to be in legitimate contention by the end of the season, competing with Kansas and Texas for a Big 12 championship nod and a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. From there, they could have looked at the next few games to right the ship and get back on track.  Then came a 4 point loss 3 nights later once again on a neutral court to a formidable UNLV team.  Ok, 8-3.  Still not bad, but that ultimately sent the ship sinking.  3 straight wins at home vs. the likes of UMKC (#201), North Florida (#208) and Savannah State (#261) doesn’t really bolster any RPI.

Following those minute, irrelevant wins came a 9 game stretch that became a 4-5 result with losses to Oklahoma State, Colorado, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Kansas (which the 24 point loss was unmistakably not as close as the score).  One of those wins was a 1 point win against Iowa State, currently ranked #110.  Not the resume you want heading into the middle of February.  In the midst of the downward spiral came the much publicized Pullen comment, stating he would not play in the NIT.  What happened?  Well they turn the ball over: TO/AS ratio of 10th in the league and #180 nationally.  They average 15.4 To/pg which ranks 11th in the Big 12 and #289 nationally.  They can’t shoot.  Their shooting efficiency is dead last in the conference and #201 nationally.  In that mix is their team Free Throw %, at 61.5% also dead last in the conference and #330 nationally.  Making that Free Throw stat much worse (if that’s even possible) is their Fouls per game.  They average 21 fouls per game, 11th in the Big 12 and #279 nationally.  So they can’t hit free throws and put others on the line VERY frequently, with basically all their opponents presumably better at the charity strip than they.

On the other hand, they are #2 in the Big 12 in Total Rebounds and rank #20 in that department nationally.  But let’s not assume their rebounding effort helps to balance out poor shooting, poor efficiency, excessive fouling, and horrendous free throw shooting.

We all know Pullen probably shoots a little bit too much (41.5% or 122-294 FG), and turn the ball over (78 assists to 60 turnovers) but given the talent that he is, not many guys out in the midwest can shoot, pass, penetrate, get to the rim like he does.  So even giving his effectiveness a backseat, it seems to be the catalyst to this team may actually be Rodney McGruder, the team’s 2nd leading scorer and LEADING rebounder; for a 6-4 guard.  When he plays well and consistently effective, they usually win.  In their 8 losses, he only played effectively in 1 of them, a 76-62 loss to Oklahoma State.  In losses to Duke, Florida, UNLV, Missouri, and Texas A&M he is a combined 11-43, 26% FG.  In combined wins against Nebraska, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Washington State he is 17-31, 55% FG.  He’s also averaging 8.5 Rebounds in those contests.  McGruder is the man K State needs most to be consistent if they are still wanting any shot of landing a NCAA bid.  Curtis Kelly has not played in every game, but the games he does play in, he turns the ball over far too much.  Jamar Samuels is shooting a measley 40% FG for a Forward, which is not going to get it done come tournament time.

As bad as things are, I still like the depth of their bench and defensive “ability” (whether it is showcased or not).  They will need to reverse their losing trends with a winning trends.  They will need to be as equally “hot” in mid to late Feb/early March as they were “cold” if they want to make any sort of run.  In College basketball, anyone can get hot at the right time, and they certainly have some pieces, but is there anything left in the tank?  They still have Kansas and Texas to play one more time.  They need one of those games or else their hopes may be derailed.  The team that fell from grace has little opportunity to get back in this thing…yet it is still an opportunity.

They had the chance to do something that had not been done at the school since 1964 and they find that chance fading.  They fell into the classic, “they believed the hype about themselves at the beginning of the season more than we ever did”.  “IF” they get into the tournament, look for nothing further than a Sweet 16 bid, but more likely an exit after the 2nd round.  Team Volvano.

Prelude to Madness: Feb 8.

Stay tuned the next few weeks leading up to March Madness.  I’ll be showcasing different Basketball teams on various and sporadic days with articulated insight and in-depth statistics on each selected team and how Sportface predicts they could fare in the NCAA Tournament.  Most teams reviewed will be underrated, darkhorse projects with some upside for a deep run (or a moderately deep run) in the Houston Bracket.  Some will be of the overrated fashion, likely to be counted as a slayed Goliath when all is said and done.  I’ll end each team assessment with these four categories:

1.  Team Volvano.  A tribute to the late Jim Volvano whose low seeded NC State team peaked at the right time and went on a huge run through the ACC and NCAA Tournament to win it all and cut down the nets in ’83 against a stout Houston team featuring the likes of Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde “The Glide” Drexler.  This category is consists of those clearly “on the bubble” that may have just the right chemistry or talent to cause some upsets, ruin everyone’s brackets, but fail to reach the ultimate goal for a Cinderella Destiny.  Power rating of 1.

2.  Team Knight.  Bobby Knight.  Hard nosed defense.  Great shot selection.  Get rebounds.  Run.  Do push ups.  Go to class.  No nonsense.  This category will consist of those teams that best reflect those attributes.  Not one player magnificently stands out in this section of picks.  Just tough, cohesive team basketball with high IQ’s.  Talent is (specifically, for this evaluation) overvalued for this category.  Better chance to dance with Cinderella here than Team Volvano, but many of these teams won’t be on your list or Andy Katz, or Barack Obama’s to take home the gold.. We’re thinking Sweet 16, (possibly) stretching to an Elite 8 type squad.  Power rating of 2.

3.  Team Dean.  A tribute to the “Dean”, Dean Smith.  His teams were always known for their effective, team oriented style of play.  The only coach who kept Michael Jordan under 20.1 points a game.  Always had great teams and many Sweet 16 and Final Four appearances.  And likely, we always seem to think “what might have been” had more guys stayed around before heading to the Pros.  This category will consist of those “slightly” underrated teams (most still found in Top 25, however) with similar expectations where cutting down the nets is quite more plausible than Team Volvano and Team Knight. They’re on your minds, even if they aren’t penciled in your brackets.  Power rating of 3.

4.  Team Wooden.    Dedicated to legend of John Wooden, who organized some of the most dominant College Basketball teams of all time.  The talent is all there, folks. The coaching is there.  The ESPN appeal is there.  You just got to play your game.   Typically, a favorite to go all the way.  This category will consist of the “favorites” to find themselves bumpin’ out to “One Shining Moment” on April 4th.  We’ll see if they really are what they’re cracked up to be.  Power rating of 4.

I think it is significant to note there will be some Team Knights and Team Smiths to possibly posing as Team Woodens, and some Team Woodens posing as…you get the idea.  Vice versa, etc. etc….  the evaluation will be noted with an asterisk.

The All-Star votes and selections are in.  And you know what that means.  The inevitable.  Contoversy.  Un-informed voters.  Injustice.  There were some eye-popping guys that were left off the list, maybe even moreso than normal, but this is not unchartered territory.  Sports writers, radio and tv analysts, and fans will go round and round about this sort of thing annually as long as there is an All-Star vote.  But with that being said, let’s you and I analyze this together as I give you some thought provoking material, statistics, demographics, and relevant baseball “purist” persistences.  

1.  We let the fans vote.  This is an issue to a degree, but even if the voters were “sports guys” or a panel made up of sportswriters, analysts, MLB Front offices, scouts, players, ect., there would still be distorted voting and rustling among the fans.  And MLB can’t lose its fans.  But truly intelligent fans are few and far between.  Many fans want to see their favorite players on their favorite teams in the All-Star game but by doing so, many well-deserved players throughout the years have been snubbed.  This cycle will continue until something changes.  I could recommend something like a 3/5 Compromise.  Similar to the one used prior to the American Civil War (this is not justification of the Act, nor a slam or parallel on equality or racism, it is intended for baseball purposes only).  Fans votes really only count for 3/5 of every vote for the starters.  And managers don’t pick “their” guys for a bench.  Every player, and integral member of the sports media votes for those picks.  This would not solve everything, but it would indeed provide more balance and merit for the guys deserving, while still having the fans involvement. 

2.  Colin Cowherd talked about the issue of Joey Votto not being selected this morning.  His basic thesis…”Who is Joey Votto?”  He stated the case that guys are chosen based on legacy and past seasons, citing the past career of Cal Ripken who was hitting .211 at All-Star break and started.  How could you not vote Ripken in?  I understand that rhetoric, and this largely falls in the hands of fans who go through the nominees and vote on name, not production.  Votto didn’t get selected largely due to the fact that he is not a household name, plays for the Reds, and had Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips not have such great 1st halfs, he may have gotten in (considering at least 1 member from every team has to be on the team).  But Votto’s production has far superceeded both of these guys.  Cowherd commented on Great American Ballpark being a hitter’s park and that some of these statistics are flawed or inflated.  To disprove this un-informed argument of Cowherds, Votto has had more AB at Great American, which is not really a surprise and therefore has more HR in that park, but it’s not that drastic.  13 HR @ Home.  8 HR away. 48 hits @ Home.  44 hits away.  His Batting Average is higher away (slightly), identical OBP both places, a higher K/BB ratio on the road, and more Doubles and Stolen Bases for away games than home games.  His OPS is maybe 0.040 higher @ home, but all is still virtually identical in proving evidence of NO dropoff in statistics whatsoever between Home and Away games.  It’s a common thing for players to have better numbers at home (and specifically HR), but Votto has been good everywhere, hitting ABOVE .286 in every NL ballpark except for two (.267 @ Land Shark (Marlins) and .231 @ Minute Maid (Astros), also common)).  I respect Cowherd’s opinions immensely and agree with so many of them.  His knowledge and study of demographics is bar none.  He is one of the superior voices regarding NCAA athletics and the NBA (in my opinion), I believe his views on Golf, endorsements, and commercial appeal are very accurate. He also brings to the table many value and morality affiliated subjects in the realm of sports, which for the most part is all on point and find myself thinking like him.  His knowledge of baseball however, is ridiculously misguided and exaggerated.  He then went on (with his demographic approach) to discuss google trends of Joey Votto.  They were only prevalent in the Ohio/Indiana region.  Probably true, and relevant to the fact Votto plays for a small market team and he’s not as popular as Pujols, Prince, and Howard in the NL.  But still not a very relevant argument in explaining how Votto was not selected was justified. 

3.  The perspectives and ideals of a baseball purist is admirable.  I enjoy them being around.  I am a Sabermetrics disciple, but i’m not an idiot either.  I appreciate both sides of the game, and don’t necessarily see things in black and white, but rather gray.  I don’t always think one side is more right than the other.  I could present good arguments for both sides, but Sabermetrics are the biggest discovery in baseball since Babe Ruth, Jackie Robinson, and Roberto Celemente.  I like the bunt and I like a guy who goes after the ball with a bat in his hands, I like defense, I like a bunch of hits, and believe Stolen Bases are an exciting and strategic part of the game, but to vote guys in based on these numbers (particularly the last 3 categories) is overrating the player in the long run and you are only setting them up to prove you wrong in the end.  Baseball Prospectus has numbers on the categories, VORP, BIP, research it.  They do count for something.  This is not a tell-all situation in which players should be voted into the All-Star game, but more of a framework to base further decisions.  I’m not obsessed with the fact that Votto should be in.  It does not offend me that he was not voted in.  I’m not starting a campaign or alluding to a protest.  But looking into the framework of his numbers (not to mention his role in the Reds’ success), and these numbers both sabermetrically and in baseball purist form…he deserves to be in.  If his last name was not Votto, he didn’t play for the Reds, and he was not Canadian, he may be in.  In the end, he should end up on the roster, barring injury or the Final Vote, but this is all for sake of snubbing and argument.  I’m a Cubs fan and do not think any player deserves to be in the game (with the exception of Carlos Marmol who was instead favored for Marlon Byrd). I could give Chris Young a hard time about getting in, but Omar Infante?  Really?  Guess these picks give managers some versatility in spots considering the All-Star game actually counts for something. uhhh….

Lets first go down the list of guys who were voted or chosen in. 

AL 

Mauer – Numbers are not as good as last season, but is there anybody better overall?  He’s a freak. Stats will rise.            

Morneau – It’s gotta be J-MO or Cabrera here.  Numbers are similar.  Morneau slightly higher OBP & OPS.

Cano – Probably the MVP of the league right now.  He’s always been good.  But this is a breakout year. 

Longoria – He’s young, savvy and having a solid year, but Youklis deserves to be here, whether you like Boston or not. Identical BA, but Youklis with more HR, BB (duh), and higher OBP & OPS.

Jeter – Solid year, but he’ll be under the Cal Ripken rule as he ages.  Yankee Captain.  Obvious choice.  Elvis Andrus and Ben Zobrist could be viable options here, but we would expect this if his line was .209/.272 with 2 HR.  Hope he dosn’t succumb to Varitek status in a few years however.

Hamilton – If anyone could give Cano a run for his money in the MVP category, it could be Hammy.  Unbelievable year.  Is among the top in most major categories. 

Ichiro – Hit machine.  Does he age?  Could argue him as a starter, but I could argue him not starting just as easily  Rios? DeJesus?  Swisher?  Hunter?  Just food for thought is all.

Crawford – Is there a more athletic player? He’s in the same respect as Ichiro. Could argue the starting nod, but no need to do that. Rios?  DeJesus?  Swisher?  Hunter?  Just food for thought is all. 

Guerrero – Comeback player of the year nominee.  Best year since ’07.  Even if it ended today.  If you still considered him an OF, he’s 2nd in Total Bases, 4th in OPS in all of baseball, with 18 HR and .374 OBP.  .330 BA & 70 RBI.  Monster.

John Buck – Really?  I had almost forgotten he was Toronto now.  Has pop, but 64 K’s to only 9 BB?  Even Mike Napoli has better overall numbers.  And no Posada?  Give me a break.

V Mart – Deserving, but injured. 

Cabrera – Probably my 3rd vote for AL MVP.  Among all MLB 1B: Tied 1st in hits( 100), 3rd in OBP(.417), Tied 2nd HR(20), 1 in Total Bases (186), .339 BA & 71 RBI.  Monster.

Pedroia – Hurt, got off to a great start.  More pop, bunch of hits, only Cano & Utley have a higher OPS.  But clearly the best 2nd choice behind Cano.

Kinsler – Are you kiddin’ me?  See legacy status above ^.  He’s been great since he’s been back from injury and his numbers would probably be great had he not been on DL for such a significant time, but where’s Zobrist?  And this is far-fetched, but why not Howie Kendrick?  They’ve played well all season long.

Wiggington – He can play anywhere.  His versatility and ability to play 3B, 2B, 1B, and OF probably helped him make the squad, as well as a dynamite first two months (13 HR % OBP over .365).  But he has cooled off immensely.  The only Oriole to make the team.  I would’ve picked Markakis.  Then you would have an Oriole on the team (who is arguably deserving), with a Zobrist or Kendrick or Carlos Guillen.

Elvis Andrus – I like this pick.  Great defensive player.  In the AL, he’s 3rd in Hits, 2nd OBP, and sporting a .290 BA.  Promising player.  This won’t be his last All-Star selection.

Beltre – We all knew he was still good, right?  He leads AL 3B in Total Bases, 2nd in OPS, 2nd in OBP (both behind a 3B elegible Youklis), 2nd in Hits (1 hit behind Michael Young), and the same HR total as Longoria (12), with better overall numbers in almost category than Arod.  Speaking of…

Arod – Ok, we all know he is STILL one of the Top 5 most talented players in baseball.  Even in a down year, he’s still good.  Not Arod good, but good nonetheless.  In the AL alone, among 3rd basemen, he’s 10th in hits, 6th in Total Bases, 7th in OBP, 6th in OPS, Tied for 4th in HR, although he is 1st in RBI.  Look for a better 2nd half.  It’s not like he is not he is Cal Ripken caliber yet. 

Jose Bautista – He’s eligible as a 3B in most fantasy leagues, but we’ll stick him with the OF party considering that’s what he was voted in as.  His HR total obviously got him in.  And I don’t expect it to keep up at this pace.  He’s hitting only .236 with a relatively low number of RBI given his HR number.  But sabermetrically, he’s 6th in OPS, 5th in TB, 17th in OBP, although he leads the AL in Walks.  How could you not have the AL HR leader in this game?

Torri Hunter – One of the best Centerfielders of the decade.  Among AL OF, 4th in OPS, 8th in OBP, 4th in TB, with 14 HR.  Production.

Vernon Wells – Same scenario as Wigginton.  Got off to a Monster start.  Has since cooled down.  Still a high HR & TB total, but I could probably name 3 or 4 other guys that i would’ve voted for over Wells.  I foresee him winning the Home Run Derby and then forgetting how to hit a baseball in the 2nd half. 

Big Papi – After another horrid start, the light came on.  And they are flickering brighter right now than they have for some time.  But nonetheless, a Papi Popularity selection to some degree.  Where’s Konerko? Youklis?   Both of these guys still got a shot, but it’s an injustice they weren’t outright selected.  Boesch (yes, i said it)? Markakis?  Swisher?  DeJesus?  Choo?  (which would take care of the horrible selection of Fausto Carmona). These guys aren’t household names, but most of these guys STILL have better overall numbers across the board than Big Papi, besides maybe HR.  But chicks (and fans) dig the long ball and nicknames. 

Lee, Lester, Hughes, Sabathia, Price – I don’t think we could argue these.  The numbers all speak for themselves and no valid argument against their choosing can be thoughtfully and educationally be achieved. 

Buchholz – Fantastic year so far.  No wonder the Sox were so adamant against trading him away in the V Mart deal.  Too bad he’s on the DL. 

Cahill, Carmona  -  Carmona has had a bounce back year, but being the player represented for Cleveland?  Choo would have been a better choice, but I understand this was about the only option there may have been.  But in reality, his numbers are very average.  3.69 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7 wins, but a very low K/9 sitting at 4.68. And Cahill may be a nice pitcher in the future, solid season, but I don’t see him being such an ACE throughout his career.  But sporting a 3.17 ERA & 1.03 WHIP to go along with 8 wins for Oakland is wildly productive  and is obviously good enough to get you in. 

Feliz, Thornton, Valverde, Soria, & Rivera – With a few exceptions, closers come and go.  Rivera is a mainstay, Soria is legit, Thornton is having a great season, Feliz has a lot of potential, and Valverde has had solid seasons in the past, and is lights out this year.  Where is Rafael Soriano?  Only Soria has more saves.  Only Rivera has a lower WHIP and only Rivera, Valverde, Andrew Bailey have a better ERA than Soriano.  Speaking of Andrew Bailey, 1.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP with 17 saves in Oakland and not being selected is almost an injustice. 

Where is Felix Hernandez?  Liriano?  Greinke?  Verlander?  Weaver?  Certainly one of these guys deserve to be in more than Carmona (despite the higher ERA’s for Greinke & Verlander).  And that’s not selecting them based on legacy, their K’s are among the best in the AL (and MLB) with solid WHIPs.    Take out Wiggington.  Add Markakis.  Take out Carmona.  Add Choo.  Take out Wells.  Add Bailey or Soriano.  Take out Kinsler.  Add Youklis.  Weaver takes Buchholz’s spot.  And take out Buck for goodness sakes.  Put in Posada.  And final vote between Konerko and Swisher.  And add a spot for King Felix, Liriano, Greinke, and Verlander.  All in all, the AL selections are not too bad as compared to some in the NL.  I find it more satisfying and intelligent.  We will do another overview tomorrow on the NL.  Stay tuned.

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The NCAA Tournament Bracket Mathematical Formula revealed

So it’s that time!!!  March Madness is back and College Basketball mayhem will soon occur beginning tonight.  Well, by Thursday at least.  Time for the office pools, being distracted and lazy at work, and not doing your job to the best of your ability because you have stattracker on your computers.  This year has been interesting.  Many teams have been jumbled in the top ten all season long.  I think we all expected Syracuse to be in the tournament, but I think it’s sufficient to say that they were a total surprise finishing the year off as a #1 seed.  I didn’t get a lot right in my pre-season rankings (I do admit however, that I had UNC ranked lower than all of the other publications, although I did not expect such a horrid season…I will press on) but I had Kentucky ranked a lot higher than most publications.  There were many that didn’t even have them in the top 5.  I had them at #4 to begin the season.  Calipari may be a cheater, but the guy can recruit and coach.  Every place he has been (minus his short NBA stint), he has risen the program from the ashes…UMASS, Memphis, and now Kentucky.  He then proceeded to leave those programs in dissaray.  But Kentucky is a dream job.  And gosh, he looks and talks smooth.  He’s got that New York swagger.  A lot of people may compare this team to his 2008 Memphis team, with John Wall being the heir apparent to Derrick Rose, Joey Dorsey and Chris Douglas Roberts being Demarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.  They went to a Final Four.  Many experts see Kentucky going to the Final Four and cutting down the nets.   They got some athletes.  They’re good.  And I do see them as a top 5 team.  But in my bracket, I have them losing to Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.  This is why…

I’ve spent the last couple of weeks working on a mathematical formula in best determining the most well rounded teams with the best chance in winning games.  It will not be perfect and you can criticize me if you feel the need.  Bill James has also been criticized.  And Theo Epstein hired the guy.  This formula is not the savior of College Basketball bracketology, but I see a strong correlation in my point system and the best teams.  Some of my statistics appear skewed, but I made ammends to them.  My top 10 teams based on these numbers are Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, Ohio State, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Maryland, Marquette, and BYU, in no particular order.  Some of the teams out West like BYU, Utah State, New Mexico, and UNLV had very strong numbers.  And although I did base my formula on RPI, Strength of Schedule, and Conference Power ratings,  these numbers were skewed due to ultra weak conferences and schedules.  Other teams like Minnesota, Temple, St. Mary’s, Missouri, Pitt, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan State, and Old Dominion also received high numbers.  On average, the entire Big Ten displayed a very strong TO/Assist ratio rating as well as Offensive and Deficiency rating, thus the reason Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Purdue rank so high.  They simply take care of the basketball.  And that’s a very important quality.  Kentucky has great numbers in Offensive (17th)  and Defensive Efficiency (21st), but they rank 125th in the nation in To/Assist ratio and were only 5th in their Conference in that category following Florida, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Alabama.  Some say talent is a better indicator of Championship teams.  Some would say experience.  But being an ACC fan, I remember the ’94 UNC team.  Carolina had just won the ’93 National Championship and still had Derrick Phelps, Erik Montross, Donald Williams, and Brian Reese (4 starters on the previous team), with additions of Jeff McInnis, Serge Zwikker, and dynamite freshmen, Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace.  They lost in the 2nd Round.  Still good all around, their TO/Assist ratio was not as good in ’94 when compared to ’93.  The same can be said for the 2006 Duke team.  J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams, Lee Melchionni, and Sean Dockery were all seniors.  Demarcus Nelson was a sophomore, with highly touted freshmen contributors Greg Paulus and Josh McRoberts (who needless to say, underachieved).  This team was #1 for much of the year and I had pegged them to win it all.  But guess what?  Although they didn’t rank 125th in TO/Assist ratio (as Kentucky), it was still was not sparkling.  And they got knocked out…

So needless to say, if you don’t turn the ball over and excel in precision passing and sharing the basketball, your team is at better odds to win.  Basketball 101.  Now Offensive Efficiency.  This statistic is not merely how much you score, but it is is the average amount of points scored by a basketball player per shot taken. This includes missed field goals as well as free throws.  Or…Possessions = .96 * (FGA − ORb + TO + (.44 * FTA).  The .44 accounts for the fact that when a player scores a basket and is fouled, they shoot a free throw, which is not a possession.  The .96 multiplier adjusts for team rebounds. Because these are not considered offensive rebounds, the formula slightly overestimates the number of possessions per team without the multiplier.  Defensive Efficiency is formulated relatively close to this, but in reverse, applying it to the opponent. 

So, going through the bracket, I compared my final numbers.  And I’m not stupid, I do believe RPI, Strength of Schedule play a part in determining seeds, so I also included those numbers as well as Average Scoring Margin (how much you beat teams by) and Away Power Ratings (how well you play away from home).  This season’s Duke team did not win an away game vs. a Top 25 team, but they also didn’t lose a game at home.  And everyone plays away in the NCAA tournament, so it balances out.  This may seem a contradiction and may make the Away Power Ratings irrelevant to you, but there is a difference in Duke playing @ Kansas and Duke playing @ Madison Square Garden vs. Penn State. 

So that being said, tomorrow I will have my picks of winners.  I don’t think it will surprise everyone too much.  There are no drastic surprises.  A few minor ones.  The ACC does not fare well besides Duke and Maryland.  Big 10 surprises.  One region actually has no upsets based on seedings AT ALL!  One region has minor upsets going on all over the place in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  But these are like 12 over 5, 10 over 7, and 9 over 8.  Nothing crazy, but there will be surprises.  I wish I knew Onuoku’s status from Syracuse.  That could change a thing or two.  The search of finding the most efficient team begins here.  Stay tuned for tomorrow.

2010 Olympic Hockey

In 1995, I was formally introduced to Hockey.  I was in the 4th grade and went to school with some kids from Michigan.  Their room was filled with Detroit Red Wings memorabilia and posters of Sergei Fedorov and Steve Yzerman.  I asked for some roller blades for Christmas and began to partake in weekly street hockey battles in empty parking lots and driveways.  I then bought NHL ’94 for Super Nintendo and learned names like Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Brett Hul, Jaromir Jagr, Patrick Roy, Joe Sakic, Mike Modano, Jeremy Roenick, Teemu Selanne, Mark Messier, and Chris Chelios.  But then between the 2 lockouts in ’94-95, ’04-’05 seasons, I became much less than a “moderate” hockey fan.  I did get into the ’02 NHL playoffs in which the local Carolina Hurricanes made a run into the Stanley Cup finals.  The following year I went to a couple of games featuring the african-american goalie, Kevin Weekes, which of course was a rare site.  There was again another pause in my NHL knowledge until ’06 when the Carolina Hurricanes again went to the NHL Stanley Cup finals and won.  I enjoyed watching, but it was hard for me to continue following the NHL.  It’s not widely televised in my southeast region of the United States, in which I call home. 

This upcoming season, I made a pledge that I would at least keep up with what was going on in the NHL on a regular basis.  Ovechkin and Crosby have changed the NHL culture to some degree in recent years and have provided for some entertaining action.  Then we entered into the 2010 Winter Olympics. 

There is nothing in sports like rooting for your country.  I was the kid that was mesmerized by that ’92 Dream Team in Barcelona.  I was mesmerized again in ’96 with the Dream Team 2 taking it all in Atlanta.  After a basketball drought, I revamped in ’08 with the new Dream Team.  Me and my friend Luke would get up at like 5 am to watch them play our international opponents.  I enjoy the glorious competition of the World Cup and found myself DVRing games I knew that I would miss.  I enjoy the World Baseball Classic.  I enjoyed it in ’06 and I enjoyed it in ’09.   I understand MLB front offices not wanting their guys participating, but with the surge of countries like the D.R., Cuba, Japan, Venezeula, and Canada, it made for quite the ultimate baseball competition.  Even with other countries developing quite rapidly in Basketball and the Americans drought from 2000 to 2008, baseball is more equally balanced internationally and has made for great competition.  Its a shame it was voted out of the Olympics.  But the 2010 Winter Olympics helped me immensely in my “growing” love for Hockey. 

Hockey is different for me than any other sport.  It doesn’t involve a ball.  It’s not on grass or on a court.  I grew up in the East Tennessee mountains and in rural regions of North Carolina.  It’s something I’m not accustomed to practicing.  Had I lived in Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, or North Dakota I’m sure it would be different.  I did not learn to ice skate until I was 19.  I was like this guy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiHAFMAfC40  .  But I had not been so excited during a hockey game like the first U.S. vs Canada matchup since the ’06 Stanley Cup finals.  I watched every match I could.  Whether it was Finland, Slovakia, Russia, or Germany, I sat and watched.  I was astounded how they could control a puck and skate like they could.  I was equally astounded how the commentators could come up with something to talk about other than, “He got ******* nailed!”, “stay down *****!, or the easily quoted, “He shoots, he scores!”  I was amazed how there is a Hockey coach who actually draws up plays and sees them executed.  With player changes and possession changes occuring as frequently as an 18 year old drunk girl’s urinary habits, I was totally into every second of the game.  And when the U.S. scored with 20 some seconds left in the Gold medal game against Canada, I got up with a jolt of vigor and passion, yelling and handslapping and hugging my friends.  Yes, it was hockey.  But it was my country.  And it was friendly neighbors to the North, America’s Hat, who only better us in hockey, maple syrup, french speaking provinces and the music of Bryan Adams.  I’m fine with that.  It would have been an obvious huge win for the United States.  Maybe even another ”Miracle on Ice” part 2.  But even though U.S. lost, it garnered my interest in Hockey all the more.  Since then, when available, I’ll watch hockey.  I’ve watched about 4 games since then.  I even found myself flipping to watch hockey during the ACC and SEC conference Tournament Championship games preluding March Madness.  I know some new names other than Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin and I know that the Chicago Blackhawks have a pretty good team.  I still couldn’t be a hockey commentator at this point, but in a couple of years, give me a headset and a microphone.  

With the Gold medal game receiving a huge television viewing audience, I believe it would be a mistake in not letting the NHL players to participate in 2014.  I believe there are also others like me, viewing an occasional hockey game or 2 during the week since the Olympics.  The interest may drop off, but the NHL have screwed themselves in the past by lockouts and lack of viewership which has drastically affected America’s feelings of Hockey.  We get Hockey on VS., MASN, and the game of the week on NBC. That is not going to get it done.  As the rapper Tyga so eloquently writes and spits on the YOung Money and Lil’ Wayne collaboration, ”Bedrock”  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ha80ZaecGkQ ”She be watching Oxygen, I’m watching ESPN.”  So, the NHL has to get these games televised.  They have made too many demands to ESPN for T.V. rights on games, and has thus overall hurt the universal game of Hockey in the U.S. and are again hurting the NHL’s pockets.  Guys watch ESPN.  Guys watch ESPN2.  Guys watch ESPN U.  But whether it be ESPN or NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox, it’s clear the NHL has got to make a deal.  And futhermore, they have to let their guys play in the 2014 Olympics to at least spike some profit following that tournament like they’ve done from the 2010 Olympics. 

America wouldn’t mind watching more Hockey.  And if you live in the South, I promise you there is more to Hockey than the Atlanta Thrashers, Nashville Predators, and Tampa Bay Lightning.  Icespeed.  Godspeed.

New Management

Sportface will now be under new management.  Due to the lack of contribution among former members, Sportface will keep the current name (although, there have been plans to change it in the future) and be under management of only Dustin Allman, with occasional guest writers.  Furthermore, issues and topics will be broadened to Entertainment, Religion (missions, establishment of the Church, ect), Politics, World News, ect., although sports will maintain priority over the the rest. 

The recent departure of Nate and Kristen Crew leaving the country has made it inevitable to me that staying in touch and discussing the perspectives of the latest in sports as well as the other aformentioned topics should still be required.  We all have to do our part.  It is a great time in the world of sports and entertainment.  Baseball season is approaching, College Basketball is winding down, The Masters will be here in a  month,  NFL Free Agency has hit, and the Oscars were 2 nights ago.  There will be much to write about.  I will share thoughts on each of these topics very soon, so stay tuned.  I have also been working on a formula the last year or so in most accurately determining our NCAA tournament brackets.  It’s scientific to some degree and will not be 100% perfect, but neither is the BCS or the NCAA tournament committee either, so give me a break if it’s not dead on.  It will combine TO/Assist ratio, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency, RPI, Strength of Schedule, and Average Scoring Margin. Call it the sabermetrics of College Basketball if you will.  It will be riveting and many of you won’t agree with the analysis I will find and have currently been finding.  It will make for some great controversy.  Can’t wait to hear from each one of you very soon.

NBA Preview

NBA season outlook

Last Season ended bittersweet for me. It was an amazing feat to see the Orlando Magic beat the defending champion Celtics and then the league favorite Cavaliers to make it to the finals. However, we all know that the Lakers were too much to handle and Kobe won his first championship without Shaq to quiet the critics and solidify his reputation as one of the greatest of all time. Turning over to this season we have the favorites to make it back to the finals, the teams that could make some noise and others that have a lot of room to improve before they are mentioned in the contender conversation.

The Favorites

Magic

Orlando is retooled to make a push back to the NBA finals. They traded young stud Courtney Lee along with Rafer Alston to the New Jersey Nets for high flyer Vince Carter. They also resigned young back-up center Martin Gortat, along with free agents Matt Barnes and Brandon Bass. Flashy point guard Jason Williams even came out of retirement because he believed that the Magic are team destined to win a championship. With a healthy Jameer Nelson, along with a focused Dwight Howard the sky is the limit for this franchise. A lot of pressure is on the Magic this year but we will see if good old Stan Van Gundy has his troops ready for the long haul.

Celtics

Last year was filled with some key injuries. The Celts lost KG midway through last season, along with Leon Powe in the playoffs to really show the lack of depth this team was working with. Limited role player Brian Scalabrine had to contribute in ways he was not able to and the late season acquisition of Stephon Marbury could not get it done. Playing a physical seven game series with the Chicago Bulls in the first round proved to be to much to overcome in the second round when they lost to the Magic. However, the Celts have a lot of veteran leadership on this team and you can count on Allen, Pierce and Garnett having the squad ready to get back at that championship. The Acquisitions of veterans Rasheed Wallace and Marques Daniels could prove to be huge pieces on a team that has a slim bench. You can know that if Wallace does not make that many threes his technical fouls and defensive presence will resurrect a reputation for defensive excellence on the floor. The key to the season rests on the knee of Kevin Garnett. If he does not return to his dominate, passionate self this season could take a turn for the worst. Hopefully Baby Shaq learns to not punch things and grow up along the way. Doc Rivers will have these guys primed to make a run.

Lakers

After winning a championship the main question is how can they repeat? Well sometimes you need a lot of luck with key players not getting hurt, but also depth up and down the roster and a great coach. All of these things are what the Lakers have. Not only do they have almost everyone back, they added defensive stud Ron Artest to the rotation. He will add a swagger to this team and if all else fails he can go back to short lived rap career. Kobe will have everyone ready to go for the season, and with a healthy Bynum the sky is the limit for this franchise. Replacing the cohesiveness of the team’s last season success will be one of the challenges this year, but with Kobe’s proven leadership I can see this team repeating as champs. Even if Phil Jackson decides to take a few games off or do Yoga before games, I believe this team can take care of itself without him.

Nuggets

The key to the success of the nuggets is can Carmelo finally step up and be the leader that the team needs. Chauncey Billups was a great pick up to solidify the point guard position, but unless Carmelo can channel his talents this team will fall short just as they did last year. Drafting Ty Lawson was a big help as a backup point guard and a healthy Nene and Kenyon Martin can go a long way to making this team a favorite. The defense and physical style the Nuggets play will help them win a lot of ball games. If they stay healthy and poised throughout the year they could be a big threat to not allowing the Lakers back to the finals.

Contenders

Washington

This is a team that now with everyone healthy could make a run in the east. Gilbert Arenas is finally back to his healthy and explosive self. He no longer has to blog about the season, but actually gets to play. With the pickups of Randy Foye and Mike Miller, the Wizards added much needed depth to the back court and forward positions. With the emergence of Andre Blatche this team could be a threat not only in the southeast division to the magic, but also to the entire eastern conference. It will be interesting to see if Flip Saunders can Flip the physique of this team. If they gain some cohesiveness on the court and stay healthy they will be dangerous.

Atlanta

Everybody including myself is looking for this team to finally take things to the next level. They have some of the best young talent in the league in Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford and Marvin Williams. With the resigning of Mike Bibby to solidify the point guard position and the addition of Jamal Crawford via trade this team is poised to make a run. It will all come down to whether or not all the young pieces can mesh on the court and work together. If they can do that they will be a threat in the east.

Chicago

The Bulls were one game away from going to the second round last season. Even though they lost Ben Gordon, I believe this team is better without him. They have one of the best young studs in the game in Derrick Rose. Without Gordon the ball will be in his hands and he will be able to shine. It is now up to young talents such as Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah to step up and be the players the Bulls drafted them to be. To me the one key piece to the equation is Luol Deng he has been a solid player but has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons. If he is unable to stay healthy this places a big obstacle for the Bulls to overcome and I do not think they will be able to.

Spurs

A lot of people would have the Spurs as a favorite to get back to the finals this season however I believe there are some questions here that disqualify them from automatically being a favorite. First of all how will the acquisition of Richard Jefferson affect the cohesiveness of this team. Jefferson is replacing Bowen who was called upon for his defense, and he knew his role in the offense. Now you have a scorer to replace him, who is going to want touches. He is a great offensive player, but it is yet to be seen how he will fit in. Also the question of Ginobilli. Will he finally be healthy and explosive as in the past. Or will his ankle plague him for the rest of the season. This team is always ready to go and if both Jefferson and Ginobilli stay healthy and understand their roles, this team will be very dangerous.

Blazers

Just like the Hawks this team has a lot of young talent and the question is can they take things to the next level. Will Greg Oden stay healthy and contribute or gradually fall into that average big man category. Will the acquisition of Andre Miller solidify the backcourt or create turmoil. Miller needs to have the ball in his hands, and with young studs like Roy and Aldridge will Miller take a back seat and redefine the way he plays the game for the success of the team. This team has all the parts to make a run it will come down to whether or not they believe they can and if it becomes a team effort not just about making the all star team.

Mavericks

This team is ready to get back to the dominance they displayed a few years ago in the NBA Finals against the Heat a few years ago. Cuban tried very hard to take Martin Gortat from the magic and was unsuccessful, so he settled for Shawn Marion. Not a bad way to settle in my opinion. With the resigning of leader Jason Kidd, and the best sixth man in the league in Jason Terry and one of the best in the game in Dirk Nowitzki. It is going to come down to whether this team is going to get after it on the defensive end if they are going to be successful. Also, getting a healthy josh howard back will help. But, if this team does not pride on the defensive end they will be bounced out of the playoffs early as in years passed.

Pretenders

Detroit

Yes they did sign Charlie Villaneuva and Ben Gordon, however a lot needs to be seen in the season. Where will Ben Gordon fit into this system? He is a great scorer but will he buy into the piston system of playing defense and not always looking for your shot. Beside Maxiell  they do not have much front line help. I mean kwame brown is as much effective as John Amaechi was back in the day. Is Stuckey going to be the point guard of the future or not? This team is in a rebuilding year I have them making the playoffs but being bounced out in the first round. I have high hopes for the future because of Dumars, but it might take a couple years to get back to the prior prominence.

 

76ers

This team is a run and gun team yet their second best player is Elton Brand who likes to slow the game down and pound it in down low. That equation does not really equal out to much success. AI not the small AI is going to be a great player and do a lot for this team, but the rest of the pieces are not looking promising to me. Louis Williams is going to be the starting point guard, and he is a shoot first player. That doesn’t really work well. Elton Brand has not been the same Elton Brand the Clippers had, and the depth on the bench is nothing better than the UNC Heels. I do have this team making it to the playoffs but they will be bounced out early. They need to build around Iguodala and get the right pieces to make this team good.

Phoenix

Now that Shaq is gone and all they got was Sasha Pavlovic and Ben Wallace (who they got rid of) I do not really like the unit of this team. Steve Nash will give this team the ability to compete for a playoff spot but after that not much hope. Jason Richardson has not proven much beside the fact he can jump out the gym and hit an open shot. Stoudamire is looking to make that pay check in free agency and who knows last year he got scratched in the eye maybe this season he will break a finger nail. Robin Lopez is not much of anything but having a cool name Robin and Barbosa is still coming off the bench. This team will play hard but they will be bounced out early in the playoffs.

Utah

Has one of the best players in the game in Deron Williams. After that this team is not very good. However, Jerry Sloan always has his teams overachieving as he is the best coach in the league. Carlos Boozer will be traded, so hopefully they will be able to get some good pieces in return. The emergence of Paul Millsap will be fun to watch and with kyle korver out for a while it makes me sad. Mehmet Okur will hit some threes and maybe even grab some boards but overall this team is not a threat. They will be done early in the playoffs

This season is going to be an exciting one. I cannot wait to see what unfolds all I know is the teams that have the most depth will be able to prevail through injuries. Without a bench you will not be able to succeed in this league. Hopefully it will be the best one yet and I look forward to seeing who will be playing in May.

By: Scott V. Miller

 

 

NCAA Basketball TOP 25 week 1

1. Kansas
2. Michigan State
3. Villanova
4. Kentucky
5. Texas
6. North Carolina
7. Duke
8. Purdue
9. Tennessee
10. West Virginia
11. Uconn
12. Ohio State
13. Butler
14. Michigan
15. Oklahoma
16. Washington
17. Louisville
18. Georgia Tech
19. California
20. Mississippi State
21. Dayton
22. Minnesota
23. Clemson
24. Georgetown
25. Maryland

Just missing out…Syracuse, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Florida State, UCLA, Illinois.

Updated College Basketball Top 25

1.  North Carolina

2.  UCONN

3.  Pittsburgh

4.  Oklahoma

5.  Gonzaga

6.  Duke

7.  Texas

8.  Louisville

9.  Tennessee

10.  Wake Forest

11.  Xavier

12.  Villanova

13.  UCLA

14.  Notre Dame

15.  Memphis

16.  Syracuse

17.  Arizona State

18.  Georgetown

19.  Michigan State

20.  Ohio State

21.  Davidson

22.  Marquette

23.  Miami

24.  Kansas

25.  Michigan