Archive for the 'College Basketball' Category

26
Feb
11

Case of the Wildcat: Part 2

Arizona:  The good stats,

Scoring: 17th, (78.4 pts)

FG %: 17th, (.480)

13th in Offensive Efficiency

20th in FT%

14th in RPI

the “mediocre-average” stats

103rd in Assist/To ratio

80th in Defensive Efficiency

204th in Rebounding

Zona has only bad loss for the year.  A 1 point loss at Oregon State on Jan 2.  Their other 3 losses (Kansas, BYU, and Washington) aren’t so bad when realizing the context of those losses.  Derrick Williams is a beast.  At 19.7 pts, 8.1 reb, and a .631 FG% he is a darkhorse for a National Player of the Year.  Completing the roster, they have in essence a solid 10 man rotation, with compatible contributors (Solomon Hill, Kyle Fogg, Lamont Jones).  They are all adequate players that seem to round out the central focus of Zona’s offense: namely, Williams.  Sean Miller has this team on a resurgence and a Sweet 16 is more than possible.  I think they could get knocked out by a more efficient team who force the other Wildcat players to beat them.  That being said, it seems as if as Williams goes, Arizona goes.  But they shoot well…and if a couple of other players can emerge in the tournament, they could be one of those teams that could mirror an ’03 Syracuse team.  #4 seed, freshman leading them (a la Carmelo) to the Promised Land in a plethora of upsets.  Team Knight.

 

Kentucky:  There is a lot to like about this team.  I prefer this year’s squad over last year’s squad in terms of efficiency.  They rank 14th in offensive efficiency and 20th in total rebounds per game.  They rank 3rd in the nation in blocks/steals per game, 14th in 3 pt %, 17th in Strength of Schedule RPI rating, and are respectable in other key categories: (61st in TO/AS ratio, 65th in Defensive Efficiency, 100th in FT%).  This team is clearly not as talented as last year’s, but due to a reasonably tough schedule and an accomplished (albeit, cheating) coach, they have the makings of a potential final four team.  But that won’t happen.  Highly skilled players with little experience as a group rarely do well in the NCAA Tournament.  I could picture as high as an Elite 8 if the bracket gods are good to them.  Their offensive scheme, to me, seems to feature a little bit too much isolation, relying on guards Knight and Liggins to take defenders one on one.  Add in the fact, that they essentially play only a 7 man rotation, depth is hard to compensate for in a highly paced March.  They look so much like an NBA team.

Makes sense, considering half of them will be probably be there next year.  Major quality players with minor experience among the majority of them, formulate into a team worthy of a run, but not the chops to cut down the nets.  Calipari’s recruiting will make it hard to compete for national championships year in and year out.  Too much balance is lacking.  Team Knight.

12
Feb
11

2/12/11 NCAA Predictions

2/12/11  Predictions

 

Syracuse   72      Louisville   76

Notre Dame   82       South Florida   68

Kentucky   73     Vanderbilt   75

UNC   77          Clemson   72

Maryland   75      Boston College   70

Texas A&M   71      Texas Tech   67

Oklahoma   64      Missouri   76

LSU   63           Arkansas   72

Ohio State   70      Wisconsin   74

Virginia   58      Florida State   68

Indiana   67      Michigan   65

Ole Miss   72      Alabama   78

Baylor   66       Texas   79

Iowa State   67      Kansas   84

Tennessee   71      Florida   72

Pittsburgh   73     Villanova   76

 

12
Feb
11

The Deepest Lowe

The Lowe life right now for Sidney Lowe.

It is not  imperative for an educated man only to distinguish emotion or rather, emotion-”less” upon a face and in a person’s eyes.  Well such is the reality of one ACC Head Coach.  Sidney Lowe does not look like a man sold out to his passion of basketball.  I have no doubt that he loves the game, developing talent, leading young men, and NC State.  But any previous fire has been hosed down.  He won 20 games his first season in ’06-’07, and the future looked bright with a handful of McDonald’s All-Americans and other highly recruited players, but things have never really taken off.  He has an 83-73 overall record in 5 seasons, but even worse, a 22-51 conference record.  You don’t have a 22-51 conference record in the North Carolina Triad of schools.

Like football in the SEC southern domain, to the state of North Carolina, basketball is life.  What other 3 schools in the US have a combined 12 National Championships and countless NCAA Sweet 16′s and Final Fours between them…all the while, with a proximated distance of less than 15 or so miles between each school?  Throw in Wake Forest, who’s had great successes and tradition of their own, with alum consisting of Josh Howard, Mugsy Bogues, Randolph Childress, Rodney Rogers, and oh yeah… Chris Paul and Tim Duncan.

Throwing those facts aside for now (although, you can never throw them out) Sidney Lowe has lost his team.  He may have lost it for good after last season’s heartbreaking loss to Florida at the RBC Center.  That started a trend.  He may have lost it well before that fateful game, but it’s gone.  And poor State fans, calling for Herb Sendek’s head,  who by the way compiled a 72-88 conference record, never finishing below 6th in the conference, taking the Pack to 5 straight NCAA Tournaments, with a Sweet 16 to boot.  Meanwhile, Lowe has never finished better than 9th in the Conference and has thus, failed to earn a NCAA bid in 4 seasons (and well on our way for a 5th).  But all that’s hodgepodge.  As an ACC and Carolina fan, lived in the state of North Carolina, with all my family roots in North Carolina, I say the Wolfpack deserve better.  ACC fans, NEED NC State to win.  They have too much tradition and legacy to be left to soak in mediocrity year after year.  Furthermore, it hurts the conference greatly, RPI, among other things.  As a Carolina fan, I admit that as much as I love beating State, it’s un-interesting for me to watch the Heels beat them every single year.  Same with Duke.  The rivalry has softened.  In fact, it’s hard to believe that it has sustained.  The Wolfpack nation need a revival.

Listen Sidney, I love the Red Jacket.  You can recruit, but can you coach?  Can you even relate to the college players?  Ya’ll gotta win.  I’ve never seen a more boring, un-enthused, selfish brand of basketball than I saw during their defeats to Carolina and Duke.  They were essentially playing 1 on 1.  You can’t do that to any team, but especially those two squads.  I don’t know how many times they would pass the ball once or twice, maybe, and take a bad shot or (figuratively) isolate the lane for a puny, helpless, and pathetic drive to the hoop.  There is no offensive or defensive cohesion in that system right now.  No ball movement.  Selfish play.  They don’t box out.  They don’t play defense.  They play like we did in P.E. circa Middle School Era.  Everyone looks lost.  Their attitudes reflect their coach.

So here’s the deal, I’m going to give you 12 candidates to replace him at the end of the season.  I believe these are viable options.  It’s not a bad situation for a coach to go to NC State.  Great fan support, decent amount of history and tradition (not so much in recent years, but nothing that can’t be revived), playing against the best of the best every week.  The University supports the basketball program.  The expectations are as low as ever at this point…You could make the tournament every other year at this point, maybe even stretch that out to once every third year…the fans and school might even be happy for a little while.  After the 5th or 6th year, you couldn’t count on that, but my point being, given the context of NC State Basketball and the direction it could take…is a positive one.  If you’re a coach, mid-level expectations, take them to an NCAA Tournament in 2 or 3 years…pays well, you get to play Duke and Carolina every year…not a bad decision.

Here are the (realistic) candidates I think could help NC State become moderately closer to what they used to be…keep in mind though, just because I said it’s a good situation for a coach to transition themselves to State, doesn’t mean every coach would consider it (hence, Coach K, Calipari, Self, R. Williams, Izzo, Boeheim, etc.):

1.  Billy Gillespie (Kentucky, Texas A&M)    Ok, so he’s got some alcohol demons to demolish, but we all have our problems.  Obviously as a coach, you need to set a higher values and moral example but if he can get healthy, NC State should take the risk/reward on Gillespie.  He can flat out coach.  He coached UTEP out of the doldrums in two season marking the most remarkable turnaround in NCAA History, made Texas A&M a perennial force in the Big 12 in 3 years, and got the Kentucky gig.  It obviously didn’t go as well as expected, but there didn’t seem to be much loyalty by the Wildcat fan base and he was let go after 2 seasons.  He did prove he could recruit, bringing in guys like Patrick Patterson, Alex Legion, Daniel Orton, DeAndre Liggins.  NC State isn’t quite the pressure situation that Kentucky is.  But it’s an opportunity for both sides.  He may even begin to give Carolina and Duke a run for the money every now and then.  Assuming his personal life will get right, he is a top candidate and Raleigh would be a great fit.

2.  Sean Miller (Arizona, Xavier)        I don’t know if NC State is as good of a job as Arizona, but this would be a target.  Miller coached in Raleigh under Sendek from 96-01 before moving to Xavier as an assistant to Thad Matta.  When Matta left for Ohio State, Miller succeeded him and took the Musketeers to 4 NCAA Tournaments with appearances in a Sweet 16 and Elite 8.  In the midst of the Arizona turmoil, he now has them in position to grab the Pac-10 title with a current 20-4 record.  Within 3 months on the job, he hauled in the 12th ranked recruiting class (according to Scout.com), so he’s proven he can recruit as well.  Being tutored by former Pack coach Sendek and current Buckeye, Matta, it becomes an impressive resume that State should not ignore.  He’s familiar with the program, can coach, and recruit.

3.  Vinny Del Negro (LA Clippers, Chicago Bulls)    So State may not have the resources to cash in on Del Negro, but he is a State alum who did a solid job with Chicago and is now doing well with the Clippers, sans Blake Griffin and the resurgence of Baron Davis.  But we all know about the Clippers franchise…always mediocre, with players and coaches essentially a revolving door.  There may be no indication that he wants to get out of that and into something more stable at the Collegiate level, but regardless, it would be a major pay decrease.  But the guy can coach.  State may not want to go in the direction of hiring another NBA guy, but if I were State, I would go after an alum with a decent NBA record.  He was 82-82 in Chicago with 2 playoff appearances in 2 seasons before he was let go.  Trust me, it’s a lot harder to get into the NBA playoffs versus a field of 68.  That’s a major upgrade from Lowe.  Besides, his NBA connections (also an Assistant GM in Phoenix) may intrigue some major high school recruits.

4.  Andy Kennedy (Ole Miss, Cincinnati)         Another former Sendek apprentice.  Kennedy has good basketball knowledge and has done a good job at Ole Miss.  Because of his “incident” with the cab driver, the Rebels let him keep his job, but denied an extension for now.  He’ll probably be cleared, charges dropped, lawsuits settled, lessons learned, but now may be the time to bolt if the opportunity arises.  He also coached under Bob Huggins.  And I think some of that Huggy fire rubbed off on him a little.

5.  Anthony Grant (Alabama)    Great job at VCU.  Made the Sweet 16 by beating a good Duke team a couple years back.  Doing a great job at Alabama.  He relates to players well and spent a decade plus with Billy Donavan at Marshall and Florida.  Alabama will always be a football school.  He hasn’t been there long, but if the job opens up, NC State should be in contact with this guy.

6.  Gregg Marshall (Winthrop, Witchita State)   I have a feeling Marshall may want to head back to the southeast.  He’s built great programs everywhere he’s been and his teams have always been a threat to upset in the Tournament.

7.  Russ Springman (Asst. @ Texas)    Rick Barnes’ right hand man.  Great recruiter.  And Texas teaches fundamentals as well as anybody in the country.  If he gets a crack at it, I think he could fit in.

8.  Josh Pastner (Asst. under Lute Olsen, Memphis)   This a stretch.  I think it would be a nice debate whether or not Memphis is a better situation than State.  But I’d try to talk to him anyways.  He’s young, can recruit, and by next year Conference USA will journey into becoming his.  He’s a Lute Olsen disciple and has done a great job taking the place of Caliapari.  He may want a new challenge.  State would be the perfect place to start.

9.  Dana Altman (Creighton, Oregon)   He was very loyal to Creighton.  But he committed to Arkansas a few years ago, only to negate his verbalized acceptance to initially take the job. Last year he finally moved on and took the place of Ernie Kent at Oregon.  He has a great system and his players always have his respect.  It’s a long shot, but it’s worth asking.

10.  Larry Harris (NC State)    I would not be surprised if State at least “talks to him”.  He’s been there forever as an assistant to Sendek and now Lowe.  He would help bridge the gap so to speak.  Whether or not it would be too agonizing to keep him there for any length of time might be an issue.  But he deserves a talk.

11.  Joe Dooley (East Carolina, asst. @ Kansas)    He’s been in North Carolina before as the coach of East Carolina.  Nobody wins there.  But he can coach and Bill Self thought enough of him to add him to his staff at Kansas.  Self acknowledges that Dooley helps immensely in the recruiting department.    He deserves another crack at it.

12.  Mark Few (Gonzaga)    I’ve liked this guy for a long time.  A lot of schools have liked this guy for a long time.  He was once a hugely hot commodity.  He’s had his opportunities and seems to want to stay at Gonzaga.  We all know he can coach.  We all know they win the WAC every year, but he’s bound to get bored with it at some point.  He’s still relatively young and has really helped to develop some fantastic players.  He’s put a few guys in the NBA (even if Adam Morrison was a bust).  He’s worth seeking.

10
Feb
11

The Drew Debacle

North Carolina has obviously been hit with some concrete walls the past 2 years.  David and Travis Wear transferring certainly hit fans (and Roy Williams) upside the head in surprise.  2 scholarship players, suddenly gone, only after a season in Chapel Hill.  They were expected to provide frontcourt depth in a presumably better and more experienced ’10-11 Tar Heel squad.  Will Graves was suddenly dismissed before the season began.  That was a little easier to get over, even if he was the most productive player on the court some nights during last season’s catastrophe.  And now, the beleaguered, battered, at times inconsistent, point guard Larry Drew is gone.

Drew garnered enormous amounts of criticism last season and in 17 games this season, roughly 54 starts total.  Now there is a valid argument whether or not this could either help or hurt the Tar Heel season.  Kendall Marshall has obviously solidified his starting role, doing so, much earlier in the season according to most sources and most opinions.  It didn’t take a brain surgeon to realize the offense was much more fluid and efficient with Marshall on the court.  The depth defensively could potentially hurt for the short term, as Drew was a solid perimeter, on ball defender, but Dexter Strickland immediately benefits from having to play the 1 last season.  Dex is also a quick, good defender (if not tenacious) and the fastest player on the team.  While his ballhandling is a bit more suspect than Drew’s, he indeed gets to the rim in penetration more than Drew, and is more skilled offensively.  I’ve really seen no correlation in suggesting that Drew was a drastically superior passer, and decision maker than Strickland.  So if Marshall and Strickland can handle the rock for a combined 40 minutes it is essentially a wash if team chemistry prevails here.

With the upcoming game against Duke, it hurts short term not having Drew’s experience, but with Kyrie Irving out, it ultimately becomes a moot point.  Sure, Drew is not there to guard Nolan Smith.  But Tyler Thornton has not yet threatened anyone.  From the players’ and former players’ reactions, sounds like they weren’t as devastated as one might expect.  See the trends…insert Marshall in the linuep = winning streak.  Not just a winning streak, but blowing Boston College and Florida State out.  So never fear UNC fans.

Drew was/is a solid player with average talent and potential, but he has reached his ceiling. Probably back in High School.  Criticism comes with the territory of being a UNC point guard.  Fans have been spoiled.  They’re used to Phil Ford, Kenny Smith, Derrick Phelps, Ed Cota, Raymond Felton, and Ty Lawson holding the keys.  In spite of his talented NBA father and manipulative mother, Larry Drew was never going to match it. Besides, UNC has never been to a Final Four with a 10 man rotation anyways.  And that’s a fact.

I think the issue here, more demeaning and bewildering than with the Wear Twins’ case, is that Drew quit mid-season.  One game before the Duke game.  Transfer after the year, but a mid-season vanishing appears to be giving up and leaving your bond with your teammates and friend behind.  Maybe that bond has been strengthened with a Drew departure, anyways.




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