Villanova: The case with Nova is undeniably calculated very well. They don’t always win big, but they win. Playing in the tough Big East, it’s a battle every night. I think most Big East teams end up beating themselves up so much that by Tournament time, they are tired and hurt. As dominant as the Big East has been in the last ten years, a team hasn’t won the Championship since UCONN in 2004, following up the Melo led Syracuse from ’03. Jay Wright is a great coach who would be a top candidate for any major College Basketball Program right now if a coach were to retire (or get booted out for NCAA investigation). His teams remind me of 80′s and 90′s Indiana teams. High basketball IQ’s, move the ball well, offensive precision, defensively intense, and do many of the little things correctly and efficiently with solid to good players who every year seem to buy into Wright’s system.
It’s not as necessary to statistically prove how bad they are at any facet of the game or category (like I will with K State) or what could be their ultimate downfall. They’re shooting 77.5% from the charity stripe. That’s good #1 in the Big East and #9 nationally. That bodes well in the tournament. They have 1 bad loss, an away game at Providence, but losing to Georgetown by 3 at home and @ UCONN by 2, are nothing to worry. Those are 2 of the better teams in the nation. The loss on a neutral court to Tennessee could provide an argument of reason, but Tennessee has some athletes that can flat out score the ball, regardless of who is on the bench coaching them. Ok, so that covers all 4 of their losses. Stats that mean something: Turnovers/pg: 11.7, #42 nationally, and surprisingly, turn the ball over less on road games.
As/To ratio: 1.256, not too bad. 38th nationally and significantly better than last year.
Points Per Game: 75.5, 45th nationally.
Offensive Efficiency: 1.086, 27th nationally.
Opponents pts/pg: 63.4. 54th nationally.
Defensive Efficiency: 0.912. 3rd in Big East. 38th nationally.
Opponent’s Effective FG %: 44.6. 2nd in Big East. 21st nationally.
Opponent’s 3 pt %: 29.4%. 2nd in Big East. 13th nationally. They guard your face and force them to make mistakes on the perimeter.
Total Rebounds Per Game: 38.5, 4th in Big East, 35th nationally.
Overall RPI: 14th
Strength of Schedule RPI: 26th
Away Power Rating: 13th.
FG%: 44.4%, 122nd nationally. Not good, but because they are solid in so many areas, it is not crippling either.
As I’ve displayed, this is one of the most balanced teams in the NCAA. The Frontcourt is solid. Their 3 guards, Stokes, Fisher, and Wayns may the best set of 3 guards in the Big East. Their downfall is that none of these guards shoot better than 43%. But considering their perimeter defense is among the best in the nation, it could figure to be a wash. They can shoot, however, and could potentially get hot at the right time. All 3 shoot above 80% from the FT line (Stokes at 94.5%). Four of their starters average double figure points with Pena and Yarou averaging more than 7 boards a game.
So balance particularly defines this squad. Defense, offense, taking care of the ball, rebounding, ball movement, talented guards, solid forwards etc. As I said, they aren’t deemed as dominant in any one thing, but they do all things well. And that could mean a lot by March if their guards are shooting well. I am wavering between Team Knight or Team Smith. They’ve slightly gone under the radar, but with a month to go, anything could happen in the super tight Big East. Could I give a power rating of 3.5 here? Naw, I’m going Team Smith here.
Kansas State: A top 5 team in virtually every Pre-Season Ranking, many of which dubbed them at #2 or #3. Jacob Pullen was a pre-season 1st Team All American, and Frank Martin was one of the hottest coaches in the nation. Fast forward to today, and they are a mediocre (at best) Big 12 team, nowhere near a valid Top 25 poll and maybe further off the bubble than Coffeyville Community College.
On December 18th, they were 8-2 with the only losses in neutral arenas to Duke (a 14 point loss) and a 13 point loss to a soon to be ranked Florida in a low scoring affair to which neither team could viably put the ball in the bucket. I wouldn’t consider those bad losses even to a a perennial pre-season top 25 team (especially Duke) and still figured them to be in legitimate contention by the end of the season, competing with Kansas and Texas for a Big 12 championship nod and a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. From there, they could have looked at the next few games to right the ship and get back on track. Then came a 4 point loss 3 nights later once again on a neutral court to a formidable UNLV team. Ok, 8-3. Still not bad, but that ultimately sent the ship sinking. 3 straight wins at home vs. the likes of UMKC (#201), North Florida (#208) and Savannah State (#261) doesn’t really bolster any RPI.
Following those minute, irrelevant wins came a 9 game stretch that became a 4-5 result with losses to Oklahoma State, Colorado, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Kansas (which the 24 point loss was unmistakably not as close as the score). One of those wins was a 1 point win against Iowa State, currently ranked #110. Not the resume you want heading into the middle of February. In the midst of the downward spiral came the much publicized Pullen comment, stating he would not play in the NIT. What happened? Well they turn the ball over: TO/AS ratio of 10th in the league and #180 nationally. They average 15.4 To/pg which ranks 11th in the Big 12 and #289 nationally. They can’t shoot. Their shooting efficiency is dead last in the conference and #201 nationally. In that mix is their team Free Throw %, at 61.5% also dead last in the conference and #330 nationally. Making that Free Throw stat much worse (if that’s even possible) is their Fouls per game. They average 21 fouls per game, 11th in the Big 12 and #279 nationally. So they can’t hit free throws and put others on the line VERY frequently, with basically all their opponents presumably better at the charity strip than they.
On the other hand, they are #2 in the Big 12 in Total Rebounds and rank #20 in that department nationally. But let’s not assume their rebounding effort helps to balance out poor shooting, poor efficiency, excessive fouling, and horrendous free throw shooting.
We all know Pullen probably shoots a little bit too much (41.5% or 122-294 FG), and turn the ball over (78 assists to 60 turnovers) but given the talent that he is, not many guys out in the midwest can shoot, pass, penetrate, get to the rim like he does. So even giving his effectiveness a backseat, it seems to be the catalyst to this team may actually be Rodney McGruder, the team’s 2nd leading scorer and LEADING rebounder; for a 6-4 guard. When he plays well and consistently effective, they usually win. In their 8 losses, he only played effectively in 1 of them, a 76-62 loss to Oklahoma State. In losses to Duke, Florida, UNLV, Missouri, and Texas A&M he is a combined 11-43, 26% FG. In combined wins against Nebraska, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Washington State he is 17-31, 55% FG. He’s also averaging 8.5 Rebounds in those contests. McGruder is the man K State needs most to be consistent if they are still wanting any shot of landing a NCAA bid. Curtis Kelly has not played in every game, but the games he does play in, he turns the ball over far too much. Jamar Samuels is shooting a measley 40% FG for a Forward, which is not going to get it done come tournament time.
As bad as things are, I still like the depth of their bench and defensive “ability” (whether it is showcased or not). They will need to reverse their losing trends with a winning trends. They will need to be as equally “hot” in mid to late Feb/early March as they were “cold” if they want to make any sort of run. In College basketball, anyone can get hot at the right time, and they certainly have some pieces, but is there anything left in the tank? They still have Kansas and Texas to play one more time. They need one of those games or else their hopes may be derailed. The team that fell from grace has little opportunity to get back in this thing…yet it is still an opportunity.
They had the chance to do something that had not been done at the school since 1964 and they find that chance fading. They fell into the classic, “they believed the hype about themselves at the beginning of the season more than we ever did”. “IF” they get into the tournament, look for nothing further than a Sweet 16 bid, but more likely an exit after the 2nd round. Team Volvano.
