The NCAA Tournament Bracket Mathematical Formula revealed

So it’s that time!!!  March Madness is back and College Basketball mayhem will soon occur beginning tonight.  Well, by Thursday at least.  Time for the office pools, being distracted and lazy at work, and not doing your job to the best of your ability because you have stattracker on your computers.  This year has been interesting.  Many teams have been jumbled in the top ten all season long.  I think we all expected Syracuse to be in the tournament, but I think it’s sufficient to say that they were a total surprise finishing the year off as a #1 seed.  I didn’t get a lot right in my pre-season rankings (I do admit however, that I had UNC ranked lower than all of the other publications, although I did not expect such a horrid season…I will press on) but I had Kentucky ranked a lot higher than most publications.  There were many that didn’t even have them in the top 5.  I had them at #4 to begin the season.  Calipari may be a cheater, but the guy can recruit and coach.  Every place he has been (minus his short NBA stint), he has risen the program from the ashes…UMASS, Memphis, and now Kentucky.  He then proceeded to leave those programs in dissaray.  But Kentucky is a dream job.  And gosh, he looks and talks smooth.  He’s got that New York swagger.  A lot of people may compare this team to his 2008 Memphis team, with John Wall being the heir apparent to Derrick Rose, Joey Dorsey and Chris Douglas Roberts being Demarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.  They went to a Final Four.  Many experts see Kentucky going to the Final Four and cutting down the nets.   They got some athletes.  They’re good.  And I do see them as a top 5 team.  But in my bracket, I have them losing to Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.  This is why…

I’ve spent the last couple of weeks working on a mathematical formula in best determining the most well rounded teams with the best chance in winning games.  It will not be perfect and you can criticize me if you feel the need.  Bill James has also been criticized.  And Theo Epstein hired the guy.  This formula is not the savior of College Basketball bracketology, but I see a strong correlation in my point system and the best teams.  Some of my statistics appear skewed, but I made ammends to them.  My top 10 teams based on these numbers are Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, Ohio State, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Maryland, Marquette, and BYU, in no particular order.  Some of the teams out West like BYU, Utah State, New Mexico, and UNLV had very strong numbers.  And although I did base my formula on RPI, Strength of Schedule, and Conference Power ratings,  these numbers were skewed due to ultra weak conferences and schedules.  Other teams like Minnesota, Temple, St. Mary’s, Missouri, Pitt, Purdue, Georgetown, Michigan State, and Old Dominion also received high numbers.  On average, the entire Big Ten displayed a very strong TO/Assist ratio rating as well as Offensive and Deficiency rating, thus the reason Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Purdue rank so high.  They simply take care of the basketball.  And that’s a very important quality.  Kentucky has great numbers in Offensive (17th)  and Defensive Efficiency (21st), but they rank 125th in the nation in To/Assist ratio and were only 5th in their Conference in that category following Florida, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Alabama.  Some say talent is a better indicator of Championship teams.  Some would say experience.  But being an ACC fan, I remember the ’94 UNC team.  Carolina had just won the ’93 National Championship and still had Derrick Phelps, Erik Montross, Donald Williams, and Brian Reese (4 starters on the previous team), with additions of Jeff McInnis, Serge Zwikker, and dynamite freshmen, Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace.  They lost in the 2nd Round.  Still good all around, their TO/Assist ratio was not as good in ’94 when compared to ’93.  The same can be said for the 2006 Duke team.  J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams, Lee Melchionni, and Sean Dockery were all seniors.  Demarcus Nelson was a sophomore, with highly touted freshmen contributors Greg Paulus and Josh McRoberts (who needless to say, underachieved).  This team was #1 for much of the year and I had pegged them to win it all.  But guess what?  Although they didn’t rank 125th in TO/Assist ratio (as Kentucky), it was still was not sparkling.  And they got knocked out…

So needless to say, if you don’t turn the ball over and excel in precision passing and sharing the basketball, your team is at better odds to win.  Basketball 101.  Now Offensive Efficiency.  This statistic is not merely how much you score, but it is is the average amount of points scored by a basketball player per shot taken. This includes missed field goals as well as free throws.  Or…Possessions = .96 * (FGA − ORb + TO + (.44 * FTA).  The .44 accounts for the fact that when a player scores a basket and is fouled, they shoot a free throw, which is not a possession.  The .96 multiplier adjusts for team rebounds. Because these are not considered offensive rebounds, the formula slightly overestimates the number of possessions per team without the multiplier.  Defensive Efficiency is formulated relatively close to this, but in reverse, applying it to the opponent. 

So, going through the bracket, I compared my final numbers.  And I’m not stupid, I do believe RPI, Strength of Schedule play a part in determining seeds, so I also included those numbers as well as Average Scoring Margin (how much you beat teams by) and Away Power Ratings (how well you play away from home).  This season’s Duke team did not win an away game vs. a Top 25 team, but they also didn’t lose a game at home.  And everyone plays away in the NCAA tournament, so it balances out.  This may seem a contradiction and may make the Away Power Ratings irrelevant to you, but there is a difference in Duke playing @ Kansas and Duke playing @ Madison Square Garden vs. Penn State. 

So that being said, tomorrow I will have my picks of winners.  I don’t think it will surprise everyone too much.  There are no drastic surprises.  A few minor ones.  The ACC does not fare well besides Duke and Maryland.  Big 10 surprises.  One region actually has no upsets based on seedings AT ALL!  One region has minor upsets going on all over the place in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  But these are like 12 over 5, 10 over 7, and 9 over 8.  Nothing crazy, but there will be surprises.  I wish I knew Onuoku’s status from Syracuse.  That could change a thing or two.  The search of finding the most efficient team begins here.  Stay tuned for tomorrow.

2010 Olympic Hockey

In 1995, I was formally introduced to Hockey.  I was in the 4th grade and went to school with some kids from Michigan.  Their room was filled with Detroit Red Wings memorabilia and posters of Sergei Fedorov and Steve Yzerman.  I asked for some roller blades for Christmas and began to partake in weekly street hockey battles in empty parking lots and driveways.  I then bought NHL ’94 for Super Nintendo and learned names like Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Brett Hul, Jaromir Jagr, Patrick Roy, Joe Sakic, Mike Modano, Jeremy Roenick, Teemu Selanne, Mark Messier, and Chris Chelios.  But then between the 2 lockouts in ’94-95, ’04-’05 seasons, I became much less than a “moderate” hockey fan.  I did get into the ’02 NHL playoffs in which the local Carolina Hurricanes made a run into the Stanley Cup finals.  The following year I went to a couple of games featuring the african-american goalie, Kevin Weekes, which of course was a rare site.  There was again another pause in my NHL knowledge until ’06 when the Carolina Hurricanes again went to the NHL Stanley Cup finals and won.  I enjoyed watching, but it was hard for me to continue following the NHL.  It’s not widely televised in my southeast region of the United States, in which I call home. 

This upcoming season, I made a pledge that I would at least keep up with what was going on in the NHL on a regular basis.  Ovechkin and Crosby have changed the NHL culture to some degree in recent years and have provided for some entertaining action.  Then we entered into the 2010 Winter Olympics. 

There is nothing in sports like rooting for your country.  I was the kid that was mesmerized by that ’92 Dream Team in Barcelona.  I was mesmerized again in ’96 with the Dream Team 2 taking it all in Atlanta.  After a basketball drought, I revamped in ’08 with the new Dream Team.  Me and my friend Luke would get up at like 5 am to watch them play our international opponents.  I enjoy the glorious competition of the World Cup and found myself DVRing games I knew that I would miss.  I enjoy the World Baseball Classic.  I enjoyed it in ’06 and I enjoyed it in ’09.   I understand MLB front offices not wanting their guys participating, but with the surge of countries like the D.R., Cuba, Japan, Venezeula, and Canada, it made for quite the ultimate baseball competition.  Even with other countries developing quite rapidly in Basketball and the Americans drought from 2000 to 2008, baseball is more equally balanced internationally and has made for great competition.  Its a shame it was voted out of the Olympics.  But the 2010 Winter Olympics helped me immensely in my “growing” love for Hockey. 

Hockey is different for me than any other sport.  It doesn’t involve a ball.  It’s not on grass or on a court.  I grew up in the East Tennessee mountains and in rural regions of North Carolina.  It’s something I’m not accustomed to practicing.  Had I lived in Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, or North Dakota I’m sure it would be different.  I did not learn to ice skate until I was 19.  I was like this guy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiHAFMAfC40  .  But I had not been so excited during a hockey game like the first U.S. vs Canada matchup since the ’06 Stanley Cup finals.  I watched every match I could.  Whether it was Finland, Slovakia, Russia, or Germany, I sat and watched.  I was astounded how they could control a puck and skate like they could.  I was equally astounded how the commentators could come up with something to talk about other than, “He got ******* nailed!”, “stay down *****!, or the easily quoted, “He shoots, he scores!”  I was amazed how there is a Hockey coach who actually draws up plays and sees them executed.  With player changes and possession changes occuring as frequently as an 18 year old drunk girl’s urinary habits, I was totally into every second of the game.  And when the U.S. scored with 20 some seconds left in the Gold medal game against Canada, I got up with a jolt of vigor and passion, yelling and handslapping and hugging my friends.  Yes, it was hockey.  But it was my country.  And it was friendly neighbors to the North, America’s Hat, who only better us in hockey, maple syrup, french speaking provinces and the music of Bryan Adams.  I’m fine with that.  It would have been an obvious huge win for the United States.  Maybe even another ”Miracle on Ice” part 2.  But even though U.S. lost, it garnered my interest in Hockey all the more.  Since then, when available, I’ll watch hockey.  I’ve watched about 4 games since then.  I even found myself flipping to watch hockey during the ACC and SEC conference Tournament Championship games preluding March Madness.  I know some new names other than Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin and I know that the Chicago Blackhawks have a pretty good team.  I still couldn’t be a hockey commentator at this point, but in a couple of years, give me a headset and a microphone.  

With the Gold medal game receiving a huge television viewing audience, I believe it would be a mistake in not letting the NHL players to participate in 2014.  I believe there are also others like me, viewing an occasional hockey game or 2 during the week since the Olympics.  The interest may drop off, but the NHL have screwed themselves in the past by lockouts and lack of viewership which has drastically affected America’s feelings of Hockey.  We get Hockey on VS., MASN, and the game of the week on NBC. That is not going to get it done.  As the rapper Tyga so eloquently writes and spits on the YOung Money and Lil’ Wayne collaboration, ”Bedrock”  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ha80ZaecGkQ ”She be watching Oxygen, I’m watching ESPN.”  So, the NHL has to get these games televised.  They have made too many demands to ESPN for T.V. rights on games, and has thus overall hurt the universal game of Hockey in the U.S. and are again hurting the NHL’s pockets.  Guys watch ESPN.  Guys watch ESPN2.  Guys watch ESPN U.  But whether it be ESPN or NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox, it’s clear the NHL has got to make a deal.  And futhermore, they have to let their guys play in the 2014 Olympics to at least spike some profit following that tournament like they’ve done from the 2010 Olympics. 

America wouldn’t mind watching more Hockey.  And if you live in the South, I promise you there is more to Hockey than the Atlanta Thrashers, Nashville Predators, and Tampa Bay Lightning.  Icespeed.  Godspeed.

New Management

Sportface will now be under new management.  Due to the lack of contribution among former members, Sportface will keep the current name (although, there have been plans to change it in the future) and be under management of only Dustin Allman, with occasional guest writers.  Furthermore, issues and topics will be broadened to Entertainment, Religion (missions, establishment of the Church, ect), Politics, World News, ect., although sports will maintain priority over the the rest. 

The recent departure of Nate and Kristen Crew leaving the country has made it inevitable to me that staying in touch and discussing the perspectives of the latest in sports as well as the other aformentioned topics should still be required.  We all have to do our part.  It is a great time in the world of sports and entertainment.  Baseball season is approaching, College Basketball is winding down, The Masters will be here in a  month,  NFL Free Agency has hit, and the Oscars were 2 nights ago.  There will be much to write about.  I will share thoughts on each of these topics very soon, so stay tuned.  I have also been working on a formula the last year or so in most accurately determining our NCAA tournament brackets.  It’s scientific to some degree and will not be 100% perfect, but neither is the BCS or the NCAA tournament committee either, so give me a break if it’s not dead on.  It will combine TO/Assist ratio, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency, RPI, Strength of Schedule, and Average Scoring Margin. Call it the sabermetrics of College Basketball if you will.  It will be riveting and many of you won’t agree with the analysis I will find and have currently been finding.  It will make for some great controversy.  Can’t wait to hear from each one of you very soon.